Pakistan’s altered landscape

No one is sure of the exact number, but there is general agreement that about 1 million additional people have been adversely affected by surging floodwaters in Pakistan in recent days. The total is now about 20 million. That’s a major tragedy and a growing nightmare for global relief organizations struggling to provide humanitarian aid. The situation also raises major issues for U.S. military planners and diplomats in an area extremely vital to American interests.

The human tragedy continues to grow. Since the monsoon began a month ago, about a fifth of Pakistan has been inundated. Some remote areas still are reachable only by air. Residents there have been supplied with food, water and other supplies by helicopter. The need for such flights and other aid is still growing.

The United Nations has issued a call for 40 additional heavy-lift choppers. The United States, already the most generous nation in providing assistance, has put 19 helicopters into service in the flood-stricken areas and is expected to provide additional direct and monetary aid. It will be welcome, though it might not be sufficient to address both short and long-term needs.

In the short term, Pakistan’s government and aid organizations are struggling to meet rising demands for food, shelter and health care. One recent estimate said more than 4 million individuals have no shelter now and no place to call home when floodwaters recede. If the short-term problems are grim, the long-term picture is even worse.

A study conducted by the University of Tennessee and Ball State University puts a $7.1 billion price tag on flood damage. That’s nearly 20 percent of Pakistan’s budget, and it is an amount sure to increase.

A preliminary government report — a more detailed and authoritative one is likely months away — indicates that more than 5,000 miles of roads and rails have been lost and that 7,000 schools and more than 400 hospitals, clinics and other health care facilities have been lost. A poor nation like Pakistan will find it difficult to replace lost infrastructure, even with a massive infusion of money from willing partners. The truth is that the rebuilding effort likely will take years if not decades.

Dealing with the floods and their aftermath is testing the mettle of Pakistan’s government. The military is doing heroic work in providing flood relief on a broad front, but continued involvement — necessary as it is — raises legitimate questions about its ability to sustain aid efforts while continuing to battle insurgents within the country and to assist U.S. efforts in Afghanistan.

Publicly, authorities say Pakistan’s civil and military authorities can meet current commitments to the United States and other allies. Others are not so sure. There is considerable worry that every day that the military spends providing flood relief increases the opportunity for insurgents and others to undermine Pakistan’s government and, concomitantly, the U.S. war effort. There’s evidence that is the case.

U.S. supply lines to Afghanistan have been disrupted, and last week a Taliban spokesman threatened foreign aid workers in ravaged areas. Whether the disruption continues or the threat is carried out remains to be seen. What is certain is that the floods are changing the physical, political, military and diplomatic landscape in the region, and that U.S. interests and policies are at increased risk as a result.