ARTICLE TOOLS
Epps: Traditional stats aren’t really best
The following admission could expose me to various lame criticisms, like I’m a nerd. Or I live in my mother’s basement. Or I rarely leave the house, which, remember, features my residence on the bottom floor, to watch baseball. (I just went outside for the first time the other day and, man, trees are really pretty.)
All these insults really hurt. I’m glad Mom is here to console me. But I will still admit it: The baseball statistics used by sabermetricians such as Bill James (employed by the Red Sox) are much better at detailing the value of players than traditional metrics. People will weirdly dismiss these stats but use quarterback ratings to evaluate signal-callers during football season.
I’m not saying you — possibly a non-nerd with your own place — should stop looking at batting average and pitching wins in favor of EqA and WHIP. It’s up to you. But these numbers are out there, if you’re interested.
The most overrated pitching stat in baseball, and deep down you know this, is the win. Too many variables factor into the win, such as defense, run support and the bullpen. Chicago Cubs starter Jason Marquis allowed five runs in seven innings last Saturday. Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens pitched six shutout innings. One of them got a win. (Hint: it wasn’t Jurrjens.)
My favorite is when a pitcher goes like 6 2/3 innings and gets pulled in a 1-1 game. Some goofy middle reliever comes in, gets one out, the team rallies in the following inning and the middle reliever who threw maybe two pitches gets credit for the win.
So what works? Well, WHIP — walks plus hits per inning pitched — is pretty good. Oakland’s Justin Duchscherer leads the major leagues, which tells you much more about his dominance than his 8-4 record. ERA is OK, though I don’t like it for relievers so much because one bad outing can totally wreck it.
It’s also fun to look at batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for pitchers or hitters because, aside from home runs and strikeouts, once the ball is hit in play, a lot can depend on luck. For a pitcher, a low BABIP means he’s probably getting a little lucky. Gavin Floyd, beware. BABIP is good for predicting future performances.
Let’s talk about the most traditional stat of all, the number that measures all hitters, the first stat shown below any batter’s name — batting average. Here’s my problem with batting average: Kansas City’s Mark Grudzielanek is hitting .303. Aramis Ramirez is batting .299. One player is really average and one is super-awesome. Plus, BABIP will tell you that some players are getting lucky.
So what can incorporate all aspects of offensive value? A guy, I think he was in his boxers sitting on top of a crate in his mom’s basement, developed a formula.
It’s called EqA (equivalent average) and, as Baseball Prospectus says, it measures total offensive value per out and includes league offensive level, team pitching and home park. The formula is set up to coincide with the batting average scale, which means .260 is average. Albert Pujols leads the majors at .377, followed by Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman.
There are other cool stats, such as VORP and WARP and park-adjusted and league-adjusted numbers along with other stuff that will get you laughed at by the traditionalists. I really just wish people put more stock into on-base percentage, because the whole point of batting is not making an out.
But I’m going to stop there. There’s a thumping sound coming from above. Dinner must be ready. Thanks, Mom!
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